A Florida man was arraigned on criminal charges in Manhattan on Tuesday without much incident. Yes, the man was former President Donald Trump, who called his indictment “persecution” and instructed his followers to protest, to little avail. Outspoken Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., showed up to lead a protest but quickly fled, deeming counterprotests loud enough to “cause audible damage.”  

Following initial news of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Trump on March 30, Fox News’ Tucker Carlson hosted a guest who advocated for “unrest,” saying, “If that’s what they want, let’s get to it.” Still, there was no security incident to report. At least yet; it’s way too early to declare victory over the threat posed by a former president who incited an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. But it’s not too soon to assess the factors that will bring that risk picture into focus.